“These plans are doomed”: Trump reverses course in Ukraine war?

Negotiations between the US and Russia have stalled. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with Russia's continued attacks in recent days and demanded on his own social media that Russian President Vladimir Putin "stop shooting and sign a deal." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, said in a CBS interview that Ukraine's surrender of the territories seized by Russia was "essential" for peace.

The EU is watching the developments with interest, as EU representatives see an opportunity to return to the talks. A turning point—at least symbolically—could have been Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Vatican. Immediately before the funeral service for Pope Francis, Trump and Zelenskyy held a highly publicized, confidential conversation on two chairs beneath a dome in St. Peter's Basilica. The content of the conversation is unknown. However, lip readers claim to have discovered for US media that Trump made concessions to Zelenskyy.

Michael Gahler, foreign policy spokesman for the conservative EPP group and permanent rapporteur on Ukraine for the entire European Parliament, believes the conversation could have triggered a new course in Washington. He told the Berliner Zeitung: "The conversation between Trump and Zelensky in St. Peter's Basilica could encourage advisers in Washington to bring the president back into contact with the hard facts. The atmosphere in the church may also have contributed to Trump seeing things differently than from the safety of his Oval Office. There is also said to have been another meeting in the vicinity, in which President Macron also participated."

Gahler attributes the development to the behavior of the Russian leadership: "I believe that Trump has become somewhat disillusioned with Putin's true intentions and is forced to slowly return to reality. It is an illusion to want to separate Russia from China—these plans are doomed to failure." Gahler expects the talks to fail, partly because of the personnel: "Negotiations with Russia will not lead to success in this context. The Russians have professionals at their disposal, while Mr. Witkoff is beyond embarrassing and incompetent ."

According to Gahler, the EU intends to continue pursuing a tough stance against Russia: "There is no reason whatsoever to lift the EU sanctions." The EU must "demonstrate unity and solidarity against Trump." The EPP politician is hoping for the new, CDU-led federal government: "It's good if Merz takes the lead, both on Ukraine and in its stance toward Trump. In addition to all the fine words, we must now also demand concrete commitments in terms of arms deliveries from those who have done relatively little so far, such as France," Gahler said. His suggestion in the event that the Americans end negotiations with Moscow: "If Trump truly withdraws from Ukraine, one solution could be for the Europeans to buy weapons from the US on a large scale in the short term. We will do that in the short term. Because we cannot simultaneously support Ukraine and renew our own stocks."

For Gahler, there is no question that the EU will remain militarily involved in Ukraine: "Putin wants control over the whole of Ukraine. Therefore, we must defend Ukraine by all means. Fortunately, the British began training Ukrainian soldiers in 2015." Now it is important to "increase production capacities in Europe in order to credibly prevent Putin from testing us with a new balance of terror."

Gahler advocates for close cooperation between the EU and Ukraine, saying the "Danish model" could apply to the entire EU: "The Danes produce their military equipment for Ukraine in Ukraine. The potential of the Ukrainian defense industry here is approximately €17 billion, which can still be tapped if the money is made available." Gahler is an expert in this field: "I personally visited a drone factory in Kyiv. Ukraine already manufactures 96 percent of its drones itself."

Gahler sees no chance for the recently discussed commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was destroyed by still unknown perpetrators: "Even if a ceasefire is agreed, Nord Stream 2 will not be reopened. The EU has decided to reduce its imports of Russian gas to zero by 2027. Even though we currently import about 40 percent, we are sticking to this goal. When in doubt, I would rather buy gas from a private US company than from the Russian state."

Given the tensions between the US and the EU, Europeans must take action to forge their own alliances. "New partnerships are also possible – with Canada, which could join the European Economic Area in the long term beyond CETA, but also with Great Britain, Norway, or Iceland," Gahler said. The EU politician continued: "A yappy like Orbán plays no role in this context. Perhaps the Hungarians can achieve a Poland effect in the next election in 2026."

Gahler, moreover, does not expect the US to completely withdraw from Ukraine militarily: "I don't think the US will stop reconnaissance in Ukraine. The use of Starlink is being paid for by the governments of Great Britain and Poland. I don't think Elon Musk wants to give up that business."

For Gahler, the fight for Ukraine also has long-term significance with regard to power in Moscow: "We can only hope for a different Russia if Putin finds himself out of luck with Ukraine."